The Challenge
Our client has developed an innovative tumour-grading technology that has the potential to revolutionize breast cancer treatment. This technology enables the stratification of patients based on their risk of cancer recurrence, aiming to reduce the amount of unnecessary chemotherapy treatments that are delivered. The client asked us to explore a number of implementation scenarios within the NHS current care pathway for this innovation, and to quantify its effect on user budgets.
Our Approach
We initially defined two implementation scenarios for the innovation, first as an adjunct to the current care pathway and latterly as a substitute. We conducted a thorough literature review, identifying a Health Technology Assessment commissioned by NICE as a key source for building our decision analytical model. This model combined a decision tree model with Markov Models to simulate the budgetary impact of the innovation over a 5-year period. Additionally, we estimated the cumulative life years saved and the associated costs per life year saved. To account for uncertainties, we employed probabilistic sensitivity analysis. Our analysis quantified the results separately for different patient subgroups.
Outcome
The Budgetary Impact Analysis modelling we produced demonstrated the potential cost savings that could be realised over a 5-year period when the innovation is implemented as a substitute for the current care pathway. We provided the innovators with a fully interactive model, enabling them to explore different scenarios and target patient populations.
“The work by HTE was invaluable in understanding the budgetary impact of the Tumour Profiling Test. The model allowed us to identify the target patient subgroup of most interest, and for that subgroup, establish the value proposition of our innovation.” Hemmel Amrania, CEO of Digistain
